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Saturday, August 8, 2009

रेसस्सिओं मय्बे किंग तो अन End

Turnaround in the Economic
For the first time in 15 months the figure for the number of people losing jobs in the US fell instead of increasing and experts are saying that this is a clear indicator that the current recession is coming to an end. The recession started around 2007 and if it is true that this recession is almost over, then it would not be as bad as the great depression that started in the late 1920s. The unemployment figure itself is still high at about close to 10 percent. The worst figure of unemployment that I can remember in my years was when it hit 6.4 percent in the early 1990s.

If the recession is almost over then we have to give some credit to some individuals such as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve for his early intervention to save some of the financial institutions that started the mess in the first place. Also the President has to get some created for pushing and getting the 789billion stimulus package passed as soon as he got into office. There were rumors just about one month ago for the need for a second stimulus package and thank god that is not going to happen. The government has pumped enough money into the economy and it is time the private sector takes control as it is usually the case in a free market economic.

This current economic crisis was widely publicized because it hit the rest of the world. But it looks like the US has learnt how to deal with economic crisis by interfering in a very timely manner. Talk of a great depression never did materialize due to a number of reasons that included drop in the price of oil and how the people in charge had learned from the past. Individually, it is still going to take some time for the effects to be removed from people’s memory. I remember the situation in the early nineties when there was a little recession and some of the actions that I took to go through it set me back for about 7 years. Things like personal bankruptcy, lost homes, repossessed cars take some time to get out of the credit bureau system. Fixing your credit and trying to get a better job with a bad credit is going to be difficult and that is how though a recession may be coming to and end as a whole, individually the pain takes a much longer period of time.

Something happened in this recession though that was strange to me in that the stock market held up pretty nicely. At one point the Dow Jones industrial were down to the upper 7000s and now it sits at 9300 which is pretty good for a recession period. The NASDAQ is at 2000 which is a good figure even during periods when the economy is booming. The market has a mind of its own and just when everybody is telling you not to put money into it that is when it is taking off. When the recession would be over and people will start having disposable income to put back into it that would be the period when it would be very difficult to make some money in it.

The recession did leave its mark though. Just look at the number of companies that had to go through reorganization. The list includes GM, Chrysler and a few others.

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